Prediction Tool for Individual Outcome Trajectories Across the Next Year in First-Episode Psychosis in Coordinated Specialty Care

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Amplify OnTrackNY publication summaries summarize peer-reviewed publications focused on quality improvement or research conducted to help us learn & improve the program.

Study snapshot

Increasingly, health care programs are interested in understanding if there are tools that can be used to predict important outcomes. This study explored if a tool can predict an OnTrackNY participant's chance of being in school or working and if a participant might need to go to the hospital for mental health reasons over the course of one year.¹  

This study asks:

For individuals experiencing early psychosis, can the study authors develop a tool that can accurately predict:

1. A participant’s chance of being employed or in school over the next year? 
2. A participant’s chance of needing to go to the hospital for mental health reasons over the next year?

Figure 1: What data were used in this study?

This study is based on data for 1298 OnTrackNY participants between 16 and 30 years old.

Study findings

The study authors used statistics and computer programs to try and see patterns in data for OnTrackNY participants that had been collected by clinicians when the participants entered the program and every 3 months after. These patterns were used as a tool to predict whether an OnTrackNY participant will be employed or in school, and if they might need to go to the hospital for mental health reasons over the next year.

Finding 1. The prediction tool was able to accurately predict whether a participant would be employed or in school over the next year.

Finding 2. The tool did not accurately predict whether a participant would need to go to the hospital for mental health reasons over the next year.

Factors that increase the chances of being in school or working in the future:

• Having previous education or work experience
• Successfully performing tasks at work, engaging socially with others, and experiencing less symptoms
• Being younger when first starting to experience symptoms and when enrolling in OnTrackNY

Final thoughts

This study demonstrated that tools can be developed to predict work and school outcomes for OnTrackNY participants. Understanding the factors that predict these outcomes can help us address challenges to being in school or having work. These tools have the potential to help providers and program participants make decisions together in the future. More studies are needed to see if these tools work well and how to talk about them.

References

1. Basaraba C N, Scodes J M, Dambreville R. Prediction tool for individual outcome trajectories across the next year in first episode psychosis in coordinated specialty care. JAMA Psychiatry. 2022 November. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.3571. Epub 2022 November 2.

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